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submitted by Copytrader1 to u/Copytrader1 [link] [comments]

After 9 months of obsession, here is my open source Node.js framework for backtesting forex trading strategies

TL;DR There's lots more to the story. But the code is all open source now. Have at it. I'm too exhausted to continue with this. If you'd like more details, feel free to message me. If you happen to carry on with this project or use any ideas from it, I would greatly appreciate it if you could keep in touch on your findings. If anyone has any insights, please feel free to comment or message me.
I've spent the last nine months working furiously on this. I started a project for backtesting strategies against data I exported from MetaTrader. I had a very powerful computer crunching numbers constantly, trying to find the most optimal configuration of strategy indicator inputs that would results in the highest win rate and profit possible.
Eventually, after talking with a data scientist, I realized my backtesting optimizer was suffering from something called overfitting. He then recommend using the k-fold cross-validation technique. So, I modified things (in the "k-fold" forex-backtesting branch), and in fact it provided very optimistic results when backtested against MetaTrader data (60 - 70% win rate for 3 years). However, I had collected 3 months of data from a trading site (by intercepting their Web Socket data), and when I performed validation tests against that data using the k-fold results created from the MetaTrader data, I only got a ~57% win rate or so. In order to break even with Binary Options trading, you need at least a 58% win rate. So in short, the k-fold optimization results produce a good result when validation tested against data exported from MetaTrader, but they do not produce a good result when validation tested against the trading site's data.
I have two theories on why this ended up not working with the trading site's data:
For the strategy I use the following indicators: SMA (Simple Moving Average), EMA (Exponential Moving Average), RSI (Relative Strength Index), Stochastic Oscillator, and Polynomial Regression Channel. forex-backtesting has an optimizer which tries hundreds of thousands of combinations of values for each of these indicators, combined, and saves the results to a MongoDB database. It can take days to run depending on how many configurations there are.
Basically the strategy tries to detect price reversals and trade with those. So if it "thinks" the price is going to go down within the next five minutes, it places a 5 minutes PUT trade. The Polynomial Regression Channel indicator is the most important indicator; if the price deviates outside the upper or lower value for this indicator (and other indicators meet their criteria for the strategy), then a trade is initiated. The optimizer tries to find the best values for the upper and lower values (standard deviations from the middle regression line).
Additionally, I think it might be best to enter trades at the 59th or 00th second of each minute. So I have used minute tick data for backtesting.
Also, I apologize that some of the code is messy. I tried to keep it clean but ended up hacking some of it in desperation toward the end :)
gulpfile.js is a good place to start as far as figuring out how to use the tools available. Look through the available tasks, and see how various "classes" are used ("classes" in quotes because ES5 doesn't have real class support).
The best branches to look at are "k-fold" and "master", and "validation".
One word of advice: never, ever create an account with Tradorax. They will call you every other day, provide very bad customer support, hang up the phone on you, and they will make it almost impossible to withdraw your money.
submitted by chaddjohnson to algotrading [link] [comments]

Help me to choose a broker -- Oanda, FXCM, forex.com, FXDD

Hi all,
I posted this thread on a Forex forum, I re-post it here hoping to get more advice.
I live in China, and I'm a newbie to Forex trading. I plan to deposit 5,000 USD to experiment Forex trading after I get used to the demo account. After I'm OK with 5K USD, I may invest not less than 10K.
I'm struggling to choose a broker, here are my criteria,
1, Allow hedging. I'm 100% wanting this. Indeed I'm not going to hedge the same amount of money at the same time to earn quick money (which is often used in big news event). What I want to do is, I have a long term position which will be there for several weeks, then I do some short term positions (intraday or several days). That's possible that I have two positions in two directions at the same time.
2, Money safety. During my Googling, I found that some brokers close a trader's account just because he/she earns too much money.
3, 100:1 leverage. 50:1 is not too bad but 100:1 gives me more flexibility.
4, Prefer to NDD (ECN or STP), but DD and MM is acceptable if money safety is guaranteed.
5, Regulates with NFA or FCA.
6, Support depositing using credit card. This is cheapest way for me, at least cheaper than wire transfer.
7, Easy to open an account. I prefer to open an account via internet only so I don't need post a lot of certifications to the broker.
The other points except 1 are tolerant, but I really want point 1 and I think it will be important to me.
Now comes to the brokers I've done some research on. I've checked a little with Oanda, FXCM, forex.com, and FXDD.
Oanda, the most money safety one. 50 leverage. However, it doesn't allow hedging.
All other brokers in my list are not as same money safety as Oanda.
FXCM, the one that's really annoying me is the margin. Why margin for a lot of EURUSD is $750? That's really weird and is not connected to the real price. Can any one explain to me?
Forex.com, as big as FXCM, but in the event that ECB put down the interest to 0.25% at Nov.7 this year, a lot of Chinese traders get network error and lost money. That scared me.
FXDD, not as old as Oanda, and not as big as FXCM and Forex.com, and registered in Malta...
So, what's your advice of a proper broker for me? The one not on my list is OK too.
Thanks
EDIT: another disadvantage of Oanda is that they have 6 candles a week, but it's a trivial problem since I can use other broker's MT4 for technical analysis.
submitted by wqking to Forex [link] [comments]

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